Herd immunity or of no-Contact orders? The Corona-scenarios to 2 weeks

Since the weekend has changed the lives of people in Germany once again crucial: in Order to combat the Coronavirus, apply a ban on Contact or output restrictions. And for at least two weeks. What happens after that? The experts say to different scenarios.

Now schools and nurseries are closed, a lot of people working in the Home Office, most of the shops and Restaurants to have. In addition, strict rules, which reduce the contact between people in all of the länder.

Contact ban in the Corona-crisis: This is now

  • Citizens are encouraged to reduce the contacts to an absolute Minimum.
  • In addition, a reduction in Public staff to comply with the stand of 1,5 meters.
  • The stay in the public space is only allowed alone, with another Person living in the household or with members of their own household.
  • Shopping, doctor visits, and the walk to work and exercise in the fresh air are allowed to continue.
  • Celebrate in groups in public places, as well as in the private space are prohibited.
  • Catering establishments are closed except for delivery and pick-up driving competitive food.
  • Service companies in the area of the care of your body (tattoo studios, massage studios, hairdressers) are closed. In the medical field, there will be no restrictions.
  • In all businesses, it is important that hygiene rules are complied with.

The measures taken to apply since Sunday for two weeks.

Already on 21. March had adopted Bayern as the first German state to country-wide level of output restrictions for the next two weeks. The measures are designed to first, 3 to the. April 2020, 24 hrs, apply.

What are the rules in your state, read here.

What happens in these two weeks?

“We now have two weeks to find all the Infected,” said the virologist Hendrik Streeck in an Interview with the “Today Journal”. Therefore, you will see in the next three to 14 days, a further increase of new infections. “A decline will take two to three weeks.” Screenshot Covid-Simulator the action again after 14 days, the Peak of the infection wave, only delayed.

We might have won a couple of weeks time. However, the Peak of the infection is moved to the shaft only to the rear.

This means that The strict measures now to hold out, the expert is not the right one. Because the shaft had not started in Germany yet. What we have gained is time. Time hospitals and companies can prepare themselves. Time to let the flu wave and to thus relieve hospitals. Time to medical research to push forward.

But it is also clear: the Early, radical measures to prevent that a lot of people will be immune. A herd immunity it needs so that the virus is slowed down proliferation.

The theory of herd immunity means that If a lot of people survive a disease and then against re-infections with the Virus are protected, that protects the entire population. According to estimates, this is achieved when 60 to 70 percent of people are immune.

In the case of Sars-CoV-2 Eichner of a basic reproduction from the time of four. Say: So many to is a Person, if nobody in the population is immune.

A Covid-19-Sick infects four people. In the course of time more and more people are immune. Half of it is immune to is a Diseased, only two other. Eventually, three-quarters of the people are immune. Then, an Infected person infects only one out of four. In the Moment in which one infects only one other, not growing the curve. The top of the wave is reached and it goes downhill.

We go back after two weeks on normal condition, it means that The viruses again. Enough people are not yet immune, they can spread again. Only the Immune can slow down the shaft permanently.

Eichner estimates that no one draws after two weeks in regard to the actions to suspend, perhaps, but after five. And: “Yes We can brakes also, by reducing contacts.”

Scenario 2: ban on Contact and output restrictions to be eased

The goal in these two (or five) weeks of “lower case numbers”, then the current measures came after the evaluation of the scientist Eichner early. It must now be followed by a de-escalation.

It is crucial to find a Balance:

  • vulnerable people to protect, to keep mortality rates low
  • not to push the Peak to overwhelm the health system and intensive care medicine
  • to achieve a herd immunity, so that the curve of the Diseased falls off steeply

The tübingen-based epidemiologist calculates, therefore: Be relaxed, the current measures, can roll with the big wave and we can then intervene once again, “right, strictly, to push the curve”.

Between the two interventions must be, according to the expert, a break, otherwise even the second Intervention is delayed again, only the wave, and our measures need to be maintained for a long time.

His thoughts can be in the Simulator to calculate: If the disease wave is more pronounced, should we practice “lock” again for three weeks Social Distancing, and Contact. You will be relaxed too early, before enough Immune in the population, followed by another small increase. The curve looks more like a camel’s hump. Screenshot Covid Simulator Are strict measures in later disease wave too early (here, after 21 days) relaxed, before enough Immune in the population, followed by another small increase. The curve looks more like a camel’s hump. The display shows only the second Phase of the intervention. Two phases with a break can be currently not-yet-present.

Result: The number of Infected is much lower than in scenario 1 (displacement of the Peaks), about one-half, and the curve is wider, so more days. It still remains a great challenge for all.

Similar shows a model calculation of the RKI, which examines how different measures impact. The experts write: “The ‘successful’ we are (= the more flat the curve is), the longer we have to hold before a substantial part of the population has acquired as a result of infection, a immune protection against Sars-CoV-2.”

Scenario 3: prohibition of Contact and exit restrictions remain valid

“The more and the earlier we intervene, the more the Peak of the infection is pushed into the future,” explained the epidemiologist.

What it brings: We can win time. It is uncertain, however, how much time, scientists need to develop a vaccine or drugs against the novel Coronavirus – in the masses, and for the people. “That’s why this is not simply to endure,” says Eichner. The nobody would like and would destroy us as a society. Screenshot Covid-Simulator This graphic shows the extreme case, if we take the measures for a year, but also maintained.

The economy Lars field: “at some point we will need to adopt a personalized isolation.” Then the shops would open again, in quarantine, only those that are infected or at-risk group belonged to remained. At the latest, in may, the medical strategy needs to be reconsidered.

Several million people trapped there, not to be practical, adds Martin Eichner. The ideas of how this protection of the Vulnerable would be practical to implement, have yet to be developed. Accordingly, the epidemiologist Martin Eichner calls on all scientists and decision-makers in Germany: “We need to find a way to protect at-risk groups, so that life can go on.” It would be best if they are isolated and people could be supplied, which are already immune.

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