New model can predict the spread of the Virus before
The new Coronavirus, SARS-CoV-2 has spread rapidly across the globe, especially the movement flows of people were the decisive factor. Researchers have now presented a new model for the calculation of the spread of the Virus, on the basis of the population, the means of dissemination of the Virus streams can be precise forecasts.
The new approach to the tracking of population flows, in order to allow a prediction of the spread of SRAS-CoV-2, and the corresponding diseases (COVID-19), was developed by an international research team and based on the data reviewed. It allows you to accurately predict infection events without individual Tracing Apps or other similar applications. Have published their results, the researchers in the journal “Nature”.
Real-time data on population movements
The method “is different from the existing epidemiological models by the use of real-time data on population flows, such as data on the use of telephones and other Big Data resources,” report the researchers. Thus, the location data of the mobile phones had been used for the development of the new approach of around 11.5 million people who stayed in January 2020 in the Chinese city of Wuhan. Wuhan is considered the starting point of the Corona pandemic.
Prediction of Infection possible
By a major Chinese mobile operator data provided to show that “the people of from travelled to Wuhan in 296 prefectures in 31 provinces and regions across the country,” report the researchers. This population current data, with the COVID-19-case numbers have been compared. Here, have shown that “the distribution of people, left the city of Wuhan, the relative incidence of subsequent infections with COVID-19 in all of China until the 19th century. February 2020, said exactly that before.“
Time, intensity, and geographical distribution
Furthermore, the researchers developed a calculation model for risk assessment in order to identify the occurring cases to predict, and places where, in the early phase of the outbreak, the risk of a high transmission rate. “This work shows that it is possible, the timing, the intensity and the geographical distribution of the COVID-19-outbreak solely on the basis of population movements very accurately predict,” says Professor Nicholas A. Christakis of Yale University who was involved in the study.
“The innovation of our approach is that we use incorrect estimates, the level of the community risk assess. Our model tells us exactly how many cases we have given the dates of travel must be expected. We add to this the confirmed cases, and use the logic that what may not be due to imported cases, and the primary transfers, it became widely used within the local community,“ said Jayson Jia of the University of Hong Kong, another author of the study.
All of the movement data applicable
Also, the new model can be applied, according to the research team on each data set that captures the movements of people, such as train tickets or data about Car toll charges. “People are spreading contagious diseases, when you move (and) through the accurate detection of population movements in the course of time, we can predict how a contagion gets more geographically spread”, says Prof. Christakis.
Effective tool to curb the epidemic
By tracking the population’s movements in real time, the model of political decision-admit-makers and epidemiologists with an effective tool to limit the impact of an epidemic and to save lives, says Prof. Christakis. Through the use of data analytical techniques it is possible for the infection to contain, before a devastating epidemic breaks out, or once again breaks out. (fp)